Steady housing market predictions for 2015

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) recent release of its housing market predictions for 2015, it'll be steady going across Canada in the year ahead, with some moderation coming in 2016.

The fourth quarter 2014 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition¹, forecasts housing starts in 2015 will remain on the level with 2014, and in line with economic and demographic trends. By 2016, we can expect a drop in housing starts as builders focus on reducing their inventories.

“The trend for housing starts has been up in recent months, particularly in multi-unit structures. This has been broadly supported by key factors such as employment, disposable income and net migration, which are expected to continue to be supportive of the Canadian housing market over the 2014-2016 forecast horizon,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC. “CMHC’s latest forecast calls for a slight moderation in multi-unit starts during 2015, which will be offset by an increase in single-detached starts."

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 186,300 and 191,700 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 189,000 units. In 2015, housing starts are expected to range from 172,800 to 204,000 units, with a point forecast of 189,500 units. For 2016, housing starts are forecast to range from 168,000 units to 205,800 units, with a point forecast of 187,100 units.

Multiple Listing Service (MLS²) sales are expected to range between 467,400 and 482,000 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 476,100 units. In 2015, sales are expected to range from 457,300 to 507,300 units, with a point forecast to 482,500 units. For 2016, resales are forecast to range from 448,000 units to 508,000 units, with a point forecast of 477,200 units.

The average MLS price is forecast to be between $401,600 and $405,400 in 2014, with a point forecast of $404,800. In 2015, the average MLS is expected to be between $403,600 and $417,800, with a point forecast of $410,600. For 2016, the average MLS is forecast to be between $407,300 and $424,500, with a point forecast of $417,300.

1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook reflect information available as at Oct. 22, 2014. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect financial and economic uncertainty.

2 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association.