Understanding growth in Ontario

It’s a classic case of the old adage, “don’t shoot the messenger.”

Premier Doug Ford comes under fire for a lot of things (many deservedly, but let’s not digress), most recently for his announced plans to expand highway infrastructure in Ontario. While on the surface we can appreciate the apprehension about using valuable lands to build highways, it’s also important to understand that such initiatives are not just about reducing gridlock, commuting times or supply chain challenges, as the premier likes to say.

Indeed, the issues are a lot more complex than that, but in short, this is all about development – not just of highways, but of the communities, businesses and homes that surround such infrastructure.

Because we need them. Badly.

Population growth

If you’re in the new-home buying market, you likely know how prices are trending these days. We won’t bore you with a series of detailed statistics, but know this: Population growth and immigration are stated objectives of the federal and provincial governments. It’s happening, in huge numbers. And though COVID slowed the number of people making the GTA their new home, everything is trending back up.

By 2041, 13.5 million people will call the GTA home. If we’re already facing a housing supply shortage to the point where high double-digit price growth is routine and affordability is at a crisis level, what do we think is going to happen in the next three, five or 10 years, let alone 20?
During a recent virtual seminar hosted by prominent GTA brokerage PMA Brethour, a number of industry executives discussed these issues and potential solutions to the affordability and supply challenges. The comments were stark, to say the least.

Need to declare war

“We need to declare war on this issue. We need to imagine it as though there are bombers flying overhead, and they are only 500 miles out, and they’re going to drop a bomb on society if we don’t fix this problem. We better get to it, and make things happen.”

This quote is from Peter Gilgan, founder and CEO of Mattamy Homes, one of the largest privately-owned builders in North America. If you know anything about Gilgan, you might know he’s one of the most philanthropic businessmen in Canada. So, these are not just words from someone who just wants to build more homes; the man cares about the world we live in.

Thankfully, governments are now, aware of the real issues, and the urgent need to address them – even if some leaders are unable to articulate the full scale of the challenges.

For housing affordability now and for future generations, we all need to better understand growth, and how to manage it respectfully.