The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Outlook and Year in Review report reveals that a well-supplied housing market will keep average annual home price growth at the rate inflation, with the average selling price increasing moderately in the GTA over the course of the year.

“A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025,” says TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. “However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence.”

The 2025 outlook

For 2025, TRREB forecasts:

• A total of 76,000 home sales in 2025, up by 12.4 per cent over 2024. Lower borrowing costs coupled with ample supply will improve affordability and prompt more buyers to move off the sidelines.
• The average selling price to reach $1.14 million, up by 2.6 per cent over 2024, for all home types combined. Price growth will be stronger for single-family homes, as compared to the well-supplied condo apartment market.

The Ipsos polling results on buying and selling intentions show:

• 28 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to buy a home in 2025. Nine per cent of these respondents are very likely to purchase a home this year. These results matched intentions for 2024.
• First-time buyers accounted for 42 per cent of intending homebuyers.
• On average, homeowners rented for 8.5 years before purchasing their first home.

However, 25 per cent of homeowners said they rented for two years or less before buying.

• Intended down payments remain substantial, at an average of 28 per cent of the purchase price.
• 37 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to sell a home in 2025, with 14 per cent very likely to sell. This result was in line with 2024 polling.
• The great majority of poll respondents said that high taxes are making homeownership less affordable, and if taxes continue to increase many will have to adjust their home buying intentions.

“As we look to the future, prioritizing housing diversity and supply remains paramount,” says TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule. “Encouraging the development of missing-middle housing – such as townhomes, duplexes, and lowrise multi-unit buildings – is critical to delivering a range of attainable options for individuals and families. Purpose-built rentals also play a vital role in ensuring everyone has access to a place they can call home.”

The report also unveils new research on traffic congestion and its staggering societal and economic impact on GTA residents. In addition, solutions to reduce the Landlord and Tenant Board backlog are presented alongside policy recommendations aimed at addressing issues within Ontario’s tax, development charge and municipal funding frameworks.

“At TRREB, we believe the solution starts with collaboration,” says TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “Traffic congestion and affordability are interconnected challenges that require integrated approaches. The current system of high development charges, taxes and administrative hurdles only exacerbates the issues. This stalls progress on building the housing supply we need to support our growing communities.”

January market summary

GTA realtors reported 3,847 home sales through TRREB’s MLS system in January 2025, down by 7.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. New listings amounted to 12,392 – up by 48.6 per cent year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, January sales were up month-over-month compared to December 2024. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 0.44 per cent year-over year in January 2025. The average selling price, at $1.04 million, was up by 1.5 per cent over January 2024.