GTA home sales expected to climb in 2024

The GTA housing market will improve in 2024, supported by strong economic fundamentals, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) in its 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report and interactive digital digest.

“Demand for ownership housing in the GTA will start improving in 2024,” says TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. “Record population growth, a resilient economy, low unemployment and declining mortgage rates in the second half of the year will result in increased home sales compared to 2023. This will be the start of a multi-year recovery as some households will still face affordability challenges, even as borrowing costs begin trending lower. As the demand for housing picks up, it will be equally important to see a rebound in the supply of homes for sale and an uptick in new home construction.

Tighter market conditions

“Tighter market conditions will see the average selling price move closer to $1.2 million this year,” adds Mercer. “The second highest mark on record, but still below the 2022 peak.”

The Market Outlook and Year in Review report also takes an in-depth look at the impact of the housing crisis on the mental and physical health of residents, and the need for more housing supply in response to record population growth driven by immigration.

“It’s clear that our regions will only see sustained relief on the affordability front once we remove the roadblocks standing in the way of progress and get shovels in the ground faster,” says TRREB President Jennifer Pearce. “In the wake of a growing population, policymakers cannot lose sight of planning ahead, and avoid applying band-aid solutions that often result in larger issues than the problems they are attempting to solve.”

Missing middle housing

“We need to rapidly increase our supply and assist first-time homebuyers with relief on the significant upfront land transfer tax,” adds TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “Prioritizing missing middle housing will provide more diverse and affordable housing options – something we have long called for. All levels of government need to work together and ensure the right incentives are in place for developers to build more housing across the spectrum.”