Horizon becoming brighter on the GTA housing landscape

It may be slower coming than we would all hope, but – as we have been pointing out in recent editions – market conditions are indeed improving in the GTA housing market.

First evidence appears in the resale market, and for this we look to ReMax Canada. It its 2025 Housing Market Outlook Report, the realty firm forecasts widespread price growth across Canada – driven largely by first-time homebuyers. Fully 81 per cent of regions surveyed noted that first-timers were the key demographic expected to drive activity in 2025.

First-time buyers

“Despite ongoing affordability and inventory challenges across multiple markets, buyer confidence is returning as first-time homebuyers and sidelined buyers in Ontario feel the impact of lower mortgage rates and the new 30-year amortizations,” the report says. “As a result, majority of regions anticipate first-time homebuyers will drive market activity in 2025, with the exception of larger regions in southern Ontario including Toronto, Windsor, York Region and Simcoe County, which predict move-up buyers will drive market activity due to the higher home prices for entry level properties.”

In new homes, too, things are looking up. “(Conditions) are starting to align with inflation in check, resale activity surging, interest rates falling and upcoming changes to mortgage rules all pointing to buyers jumping back into the new home market in the coming months,” says Edward Jegg, research manager with Altus Group, the official source for new home market intelligence for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).

Larger systemic issues still hamper the development industry, notably a “cost to build” challenge. “Rising construction costs, coupled with escalating government fees, taxes and charges, have made it increasingly difficult to deliver new homes at a price point the market can absorb,” says Justin Sherwood, senior vice-president, communications, research and stakeholder relations at BILD. “Only by getting cost to build under control can we restart development and ensure a sustainable housing supply that meets market demand.”

Housing policy

Thankfully, some municipalities are paying attention.

“We were very heartened (in mid-November) to see the City of Vaughan take a leadership role on this front by universally lowering its development charges by up to 25 per cent,” Sherwood says. “We encourage all GTA municipalities to consider similar measures.”

Indeed, housing policy is an increasingly important factor on the housing landscape, and more government initiative is necessary to further brighten the outlook on the horizon.