Municipal boundaries in GTA must expand to meet housing goals

Ontario aims to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031. It is a conservative goal, given Canada’s rapid population growth and the high proportion of newcomers who choose to live in Ontario and the GTA. Building enough homes to accommodate this growth in our region cannot be accomplished through intensification alone and will require the expansion of municipal boundaries.

Fewer options to accommodate the growth

In late October, the provincial government announced that it would rescind a number of municipal boundary expansions across the province. While some applauded, the fact is that this move has stalled an important process and introduced a high degree of uncertainty into the task of providing the homes our region needs to both accommodate growth and address historic supply constraints that have led to the housing supply and affordability crisis.

The government had added 13,000 hectares to various Ontario and GTA municipalities in 2022. Decried as sprawl by critics, this expansion of municipal boundaries was nothing of the sort. It was the result of intensive multi-year planning exercises at the municipal, regional and provincial levels and was based on the Growth Plan, the Provincial Policy Statement (a document guiding growth and development in the province) and the government’s own population and market needs assessments. Nor is land use expanding faster than population: The rate of land expansion is projected at seven per cent from 2031 to 2051, while the rate of population growth is projected at 24 per cent in that time frame.

Effective and responsible strategies

The decision to rescind the municipal boundary expansions leaves the GTA with fewer options to accommodate the growth expected by 2051. Intensification, or adding housing and development within existing municipal boundaries, is one legitimate strategy. It makes sense for a variety of planning, financial and environmental reasons. But intensification alone has practical limitations. In the absence of urban boundary expansion, large portions of the built-up areas that currently hold homes, businesses, schools and offices would need to be redeveloped in many municipalities. In Halton, that portion would be 15 per cent of the entire built-up area; in Peel, 10 per cent and in Durham, six per cent. To be clear, redevelopment would mean demolishing existing houses and buildings and replacing them with higher-density developments. Would you want 15 per cent of the homes in your neighbourhood to be replaced with multiplexes? It is simply not possible or responsible.

As we look to accommodate future generations, new residents and their employment, retail and community needs to 2051, we must use strategies that are effective and responsible and that enable the addition of housing and employment spaces with a mix and density consistent with what the market is looking for. Combining intensification with municipal boundary expansion will give us the best chance of meeting our goals for housing and employment spaces.