New home sales improvement on the horizon: BILD

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) new home sales remained low in October, with another month of low sales with the new condominium apartment sector particularly hard hit, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) reports.

There were 765 new home sales in October, down 60 per cent from October 2023 and 77 per cent below the 10-year average, according to Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new home market intelligence.

Buyers jumping back into the new home market

“The GTA new home market remained practically frozen with inaction in October 2024,” says Edward Jegg, research manager with Altus Group. “However, conditions are starting to align with inflation in check, resale activity surging, interest rates falling and upcoming changes to mortgage rules all pointing to buyers jumping back into the new home market in the coming months.”

Condominium units, including in low, medium and highrise buildings, stacked townhouses and loft units, accounted for 210 units sold in October, down 84 per cent from October 2023 and 91 per cent below the 10-year average.

There were 555 single-family home sales in October, unchanged from October 2023 and 45 per cent below the 10-year average. Single-family homes include detached, linked and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses).

Total new home remaining inventory increased slightly compared to the previous month, to 22,299 units. This includes 17,682 condominium apartment units and 4,617 single-family dwellings. This represents a combined inventory level of 14.4 months, based on average sales for the last 12 months. In recent months, there has been a downturn in housing starts in the GTA, a trend that is expected to continue given the prolonged period of low sales in the region. Housing starts are the housing supply of tomorrow and the longer that sales remain low the more it is anticipated that available housing supply in the 2027-29 time period will suffer. As buyers slowly return to the market, this will invariably lead to price appreciation, less choice and mix in the future.

Leadership role

“The Greater Toronto Area is grappling with a major ‘cost to build’ challenge,” says Justin Sherwood, senior vice-president, communications, research and stakeholder relations at BILD. “Rising construction costs, coupled with escalating government fees, taxes and charges, have made it increasingly difficult to deliver new homes at a price point the market can absorb. This cost imbalance has led to a sharp decline in both sales and housing starts, which poses a serious threat to the region’s future housing supply. Only by getting cost to build under control can we restart development and ensure a sustainable housing supply that meets market demand. We were very heartened (in mid-November) to see the City of Vaughan take a leadership role on this front by universally lowering its development charges by up to 25 per cent. We encourage all GTA municipalities to consider similar measures.”

Benchmark prices decreased slightly in October for both single-family homes and for condominium units compared to the previous year. The benchmark price for new condominiums was $1.01 million, down 1.6 per cent over the last 12 months, while the benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.54 million, down 4.9 per cent.