The Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) says it is pleased with the provincial government’s 2025 Fall Economic Statement, though it doesn’t introduce new policy initiatives to address housing challenges.

“We are encouraged that opportunities may still exist for the government to implement much-needed measures due to tariffs and other economic challenges to stimulate the Ontario home construction industry and keep over 40,000 workers employed,” OHBA says.

Increasing GDP growth

The government is projecting deficits of $13.5 billion in 2025-26 and $7.8 billion in 2026-27, followed by a surplus of $0.2 billion in 2027-28.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.7 per cent in 2025-26, slightly lower than the forecasted 37.9 per cent from the 2025 Budget. This ratio fell to a 13-year low last year. The net interest as a percentage of operating revenue ratio for 2025-26 is forecast to be 6.4 per cent and remains close to the lowest levels it has been at since the 1980s.

Ontario’s real GDP growth has been impacted by U.S. trade policy and tariffs and is projected to decelerate from 1.4 per cent in 2024 to 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026, in line with the projections at the time of the 2025 Budget. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in subsequent years with projected increases of 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028.

“It is heartening to see the additional funding of $50 million for the Better Jobs Ontario program,” OHBA says. “This program supports skills training to help job seekers train and upskill for in-demand positions. We recognize the importance of our skilled labourers, and that without additional support, Ontario was looking at losing up to 40,000 skilled trades jobs. This is an important measure to support our members and tradespeople across Ontario.”

The Minister of Finance reaffirmed the Ontario government’s commitment to remove the eight per cent provincial sales tax for first-time buyers on new homes valued up to $1 million, pending the passing of federal legislation. With the ratio of net debt to GDP falling to a 13-year low, this will free up surplus revenues that can be diverted to priority projects, OHBA says. “We firmly believe that taking decisive action to address the housing crisis and to restart home construction in Ontario must be one of these priorities.

Bold action required

With that in mind, OHBA says it will continue to advocate for the removal of the provincial portion of the GST on ALL new home construction, not just for first-time homebuyers. According to research conducted by OHBA, first-time buyers currently represent approximately five per cent of the new home market. It will take bold action by all levels of government to unlock supply and restore affordability. “We will continue to call on the government of Ontario to lead by taking bold action that will make homeownership a reality for younger generations.

“We anticipate that the next few years will be marked by uncertainty and low economic growth. Consumers are not making the largest purchase of their lives if they aren’t certain of the future. OHBA remains committed to continuing to lobby the provincial government to expand this PST relief for all new-home sales in Ontario, and spur both the purchase and ongoing construction of new homes across the province.”