The fall market: First-time buyer hot spots abound

With the arrival of autumn, signs of seasonal change abound, including new-home opportunities for first-time homebuyers in Metro Vancouver.

One of the two primary buying windows in Metro Vancouver is mid-September to mid-November. Last year, the fall market for new multi-family homes was active despite a noticeable decline in the re-sale market.

For two months in a row, year-over-year sales totals have increased, and depending on the neighbourhood, by 12 to 25 percent. The largest was across North Delta, Surrey, and Langley. Throughout the Metro Vancouver area, all property types are selling and we’re seeing a resurgence in the single-family detached market.

A key word to describe what to expect in the coming fall market is “stability”. Brendon Edmundson, deputy chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), agrees, saying, “… markets are showing signs of recovery after nearly a year-and-a-half of policy-induced declines.” He adds: “We expect that recovery to continue into next year, with home sales normalizing around long-term averages.” In other words, sales are projected to increase this fall and prices increase at some point after that.

Predicted fall sales increases will be buoyed by a new government initiative aimed at helping first-time buyers purchase their first home. This incentive reduces monthly mortgage payments without increasing the amount needed to save for a down payment. In other areas of Canada, this program can help buyers acquire single-family homes. Here on the West Coast, due to affordability challenges, it will primarily assist with condominium purchases.

At the start of 2019, we expected a market decline followed by a stabilization, and we identified a number of “hot spots”. These hot spots were in areas that can attract both first-time new homebuyers and pre-sales investors with affordable/attractive condominium products priced between $300,000 and $500,000.

Despite recent price reductions, it is improbable that re-sale or new highrise or low-rise products in Vancouver West or downtown will be offered for less than $1,000 per sq. ft. That being said, there are new-home opportunities priced between $300,000 and $500,000 in other areas. Thus, the first-time buyer this fall is best to focus on concrete apartments and new or re-sale wood frame condominiums.

Desirable, accessible, affordable, and government program-eligible areas include: a) concrete offerings in New Westminster, Coquitlam or Surrey City Centre near Skytrain such as Avani Centre or Georgetown or b) wood-frame offerings in Port Moody, Burnaby, Surrey, North Delta, Langley and Abbotsford such as Electronic Avenue, Astoria, Parker, Scott & Nicholson, Alexander Square and Ventura.

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What’s next in Metro Van. for the new multi-family home