Want market info? Who do you trust?

Whenever a real estate agent, builder or developer references the state of the Toronto housing market in a media article, a video, or on a website, and says anything other than the market is overbuilt, oversupplied, overvalued or on the brink of collapse, one of the first comments made online is that this person should not be trusted, that you shouldn’t take advice from someone that makes money in the real estate business.

By this same logic, I guess I shouldn’t take tips on fire safety from a fireman because he makes his money in that industry, fewer fires might mean he’d lose his job. Why does a dentist tell you to floss? Wouldn’t he make more money if you don’t? Why listen to any financial advisor about investing? Don’t they get paid more commission when you invest more? Realtors are biased too, always telling you to buy or the market is performing well.

I honestly feel sorry for these people. It must be difficult to trust anyone if you think everyone is out to swindle you, that everyone will lie, manipulate or bend the truth to separate you from your money. I choose to believe that people’s judgments are not solely based on their own financial gain. I too have been accused of being biased; if the market is strong, you’ll get more consulting assignments!

People that know me well, know that I’d much rather be right than rich. My commentary is my opinion, I don’t want people to have the satisfaction of waiving my incorrect predictions in my face. I got some sideways looks on a real estate panel that I was on in early 2017 when I warned developers to be very careful in buying low-density land, as the market was frothy. That turned out to be sage advice, as the market for new single-family homes slumped badly in 2018. However, according to a BILD press release on GTA new-home activity, March 2019 transactions were “the fifth month in a row that new single-family home sales have increased year-over-year.”

If you want to know what’s happening in the residential housing market, go to the experts, go to the people that study the market every day, go to the folks that pour over the Toronto Real Estate Board data daily when looking for suites for their clients, go to people in the business that are having the conversations with buyers, mortgage brokers, construction lenders, other sales agents, developers, insurers.

It’s great to see people interested in real estate economics and market data in specific locations, but better to go to someone with experience and actual data, as opposed to a rumour your neighbour heard. Seek out several opinions, don’t just look for data and commentary that support your ‘priors’. Someone that doesn’t live in the Greater Toronto Area is not going to be an expert on what’s happening in our real estate market.

The thing that people really need to understand is that there are opportunities to buy when the market is booming and there are opportunities to buy when the market is flat. A good realtor can help you find the perfect place for you to live or help identify an undervalued property for investment purposes in both instances.

New-home sales may be slower in 2019 than in years past, but that doesn’t automatically mean it’s a bad time to buy. It might be due to a lack of new project launches, or simply a return to a more normalized market. If the sales are a little bit soft, a good realtor might help you score some free upgrades to get the deal done!

If you’re renting and looking for a new place, just a friendly reminder: According to data from Rentals.ca, the average rent increased in April over March in Toronto for basement apartments, rental apartments, condo apartments, townhouses and single-family homes. Unfortunately, this market is going to get you one way or the other.

If you are looking for a good realtor with experience, I can recommend a few: Ralph Fox of Fox Marin Associates, Andrew La Fleur of Re/Max Condos Plus Corporation, Mark Savel of Sage Real Estate Ltd, Ara Mamourian of Spring Realty, Amit Bhandri of Talk Condo fame, or Brian Persaud of Re/Max Realtron.

I hope that you don’t decide if the Toronto market is up or down by who said it. Attack the message, not the messenger. I hope you educate yourself on what is happening in the market, in addition to leaning on experts like myself and your local realtor. With that combined knowledge, you’ll always be prepared to make an informed decision.

Good luck.

Related reading

Why do foreign buyers like Toronto real estate so much?