If you’re a first-time buyer looking at the new condo market, you’ve probably noticed two things: Prices are no longer climbing and headlines keep warning of a “record-low sales.” But does this mean you should avoid buying, or could it be a rare window of opportunity?

On Episode 94 of the Toronto Under Construction podcast, I sat down with three of the GTA’s most influential real estate sales and marketing leaders: Andy Brethour (PMA Brethour Realty), Riz Dhanji (RAD Marketing) and Debbie Cosic (In2ition Realty). During our chat, we tried to make sense of today’s correction and what it means for buyers.

A recent report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) compared today’s slowdown to the early 1990s, when condo prices fell sharply and projects stalled city-wide. Andy Brethour, who has lived through five previous market cycles, says the two periods feel similar, but not identical.

Taxes and government fees

In the 1990s, all parts of the market collapsed at once. This time, resale condos have held up surprisingly well, even as pre-construction sales have stalled. “We’ll likely see another small price decline (maybe five to seven per cent), but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel,” Brethour says, predicting momentum will return by spring 2026.

His biggest concern? Taxes and government fees, which have exploded since the 1990s and now make up more than 30 per cent of the cost of a new home. “We’ve gone tax crazy,” he warns.

Much of today’s slowdown comes from the investor pullback. During the boom years, investors bought most new condo units. But as interest rates surged and rents failed to keep up, the math fell apart.

Riz Dhanji says that right now, buying pre-construction for investment doesn’t pencil out. Developers would need to launch far below current pricing to make investor returns viable again, and few can afford to do so. That’s why some have cancelled or delayed launches until 2026 or 2027.

But here’s the opportunity: With investors largely sidelined, the market has shifted toward end users.

Market needs

“We’re getting back to what the market actually needs,” Brethour says. “Smaller, midrise projects, and more purpose-built rentals.”

Debbie Cosic adds another key point: Yes, some price lists still show $1,800 per-sq.-ft., but real deals today are happening closer to $1,300. Prices have already corrected 10 to 40 per cent across the province.

Cosic offered a dose of realism for prospective buyers: “We’re not in an oversupply crisis, we’re in an affordability crisis.” Mortgage rates, fees, qualifying hurdles and taxes are the biggest barriers.

She argues for longer amortizations, lower development charges and more flexible financing. “A client of ours just got a 20-per-cent mortgage rate. That should be illegal,” she says.

Dhanji adds that Canada is the only country that bans foreign buyers from purchasing pre-construction condos, which he believes is hurting supply and slowing recovery. Australia, by contrast, encourages foreign buyers in new builds but blocks them from resale, keeping locals competitive while still funding construction.

You’ve probably seen articles claiming condos are “too small to live in.” The panel pushed back strongly.

“A well-designed 500-sq.-ft. unit absolutely works,” Cosic says. For many first-time buyers, a compact, efficient unit is the only viable entry point into homeownership, especially without parental help.

Dhanji agrees that some units are “unlivable,” but insists the problem isn’t size, it’s cost. Reduce red tape, and builders can make slightly larger suites without pushing prices out of reach.

Real opportunity

Brethour goes further, calling the federal government’s $13-billion housing pledge “irresponsible” for ignoring the role of market housing entirely. He cites Munich’s 2008 solution: The City purchased unsold inventory and turned it into rentals. Toronto could do the same today, instantly unlocking 21,000 new units.

The panel is clear: This market still carries risk, but also real opportunity.

Prices are down. Investors aren’t competing with you. Sales cycles are longer and more negotiable. Developers are offering incentives unheard of during the boom. And if rates drop again in 2026, the prices developers need to generate a profit could work for buyers again.

As Dhanji says, “We’re not doing 400 units in a weekend anymore. It’s a 24-month grind.” Translation: You have time to do homework, compare projects and negotiate.

The market isn’t broken, but the old playbook is. Quick flips, 10-per-cent deposits and blind bidding wars are gone. What remains is a slower, more cautious, more end-user-focused condo market.

For those who buy thoughtfully, in the right locations, with realistic timelines and strong builders, will not regret their decision to buy. Surround yourself with an experienced team, do your own research, and buy what you can afford. Good luck.