No one could blame prospective new condo buyers from feeling a little apprehensive these days. To be sure, pre-construction opportunities are available, but low housing starts and paused projects create and air of uncertainty.

Some, in fact, worry that the current state of the market echoes what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.

Diverse and stable economy

“We have been here before,” Dave Wilkes, president and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), writes in his Industry Report on page 34. “The 1990s downturn left a lasting mark on our economy, with lost jobs in the construction and skilled trades sector, widespread financial strain on Canadians and a prolonged recovery.”

Not this time, however, at least according to recent research from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). “We find several major differences,” CMHC says in a report on Sept. 14. “These include a more diverse and stable economy, stricter lending rules that have discouraged speculative building and an underlying shortage of homes based on demographics.”

One key difference is that the condominium downturn in the 1990s unfolded during a severe recession, CMHC says. And while there is economic uncertainty brought on by trade tensions with the U.S., overall employment remains stable.

Period of adjustment

Indeed, the unemployment rate remained unchanged in September, at 7.1 per cent. Another important signpost, inflation, also remains largely unchanged, barely rising to 1.90 per cent in August 2025 from 1.70 per cent in July.

After a period of adjustment, growth will return, CMHC says. “Looking ahead, we anticipate a more balanced market. Combined with current pent-up demand and expected economic growth over the next few years, this could amplify concerns about a lack of housing supply.”

Or, as Ben Myers summarizes in his Stat Chat column on page 14, “The (GTA) housing market in late 2025 is offering opportunities for buyers willing to take measured risks. After years of explosive growth, the market has entered a correction phase. Some of the long-standing drivers of price appreciation have reversed: Population growth has slowed, sales have stalled and even the rental market has cooled. Yet beneath these short-term adjustments, the same fundamentals remain: Limited land, strong long-term demand and a diverse population that still needs housing. For many, today’s lull may represent a brief pause before the next climb.”

In other words – an opportunity.