What is the housing market story telling us so far in 2026, and how does it align with polling data predictions? In a recent episode of TRREB’s Ready to Real Estate podcast, host and TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer leads a timely discussion with Ipsos Senior Vice-President Sean Simpson on the key factors shaping today’s market and what could unfold later this year and into early next year.

Mercer and Simpson explore improved affordability, ongoing buyer hesitation, first-time homebuyer intentions, average down payments, inter-generational wealth transfer, shifting inventory conditions and the role of government policy.

Reading the market signals

TRREB’s March Market Watch numbers indicated more sales but at lower prices, reflecting a market that remains well-supplied, providing more buyer choice and ultimately affordability. Simpson explains that Ipsos research found people were not willing to sacrifice their down payments to seize the moment. Instead, they are choosing slightly less expensive homes while maintaining down payments close to 30 per cent on average.

This helps explain how many buyers are approaching the market. They may see improved affordability, but they continue to make careful choices about price, value and long-term financial commitments.

How family support is shaping homeownership

Simpson also notes an increase in inter-generational wealth transfer, with parents and grandparents providing significant financial help for young couples and families entering homeownership. This support has become part of the larger housing market story, especially as first-time buyers consider their options and weigh affordability against the financial realities of purchasing a home. First-time buyers know they have options, with substantial negotiating power in ownership and rental markets.

From affordability pressure to confidence questions

Although many people still feel the pressure of high housing costs, Simpson explains why Ipsos sees the market challenge shifting. He says a crisis is usually a relatively short and defined period, with a beginning and an end. Low interest rates during the pandemic and recovery led to unsustainable growth in home prices. Bank of Canada rate increases to fight inflation further contributed to a lack of affordability. Over the last year, however, buyers have benefitted from lower home prices and borrowing costs, yet we haven’t seen a significant uptick in sales activity.

Simpson points out that the issue facing the housing market now is a broader lack of confidence, fed by economic concerns related to trade disputes and geopolitical issues. Once intending homebuyers become more confident in our economic future, they will move off the sidelines in larger numbers to take advantage of improved affordability.

What the market could do next

Simpson says the “crystal ball is a little bit murky” because of uncertainty in the market and broader economy. However, he believes more buyers could enter the market in the latter part of 2026 as they recognize that affordability is better than it has been over the past five years and may not improve much further.

Markets move on confidence. The encouraging news is that many of the affordability improvements buyers have been waiting for are already in place. Now, the market is waiting for confidence to catch up. As more households see stability in the market and the broader economy, we could see more buyers move from watching the market to making their move.

To hear whole conversation, listen to the full episode of TRREB’s Ready to Real Estate podcast at trreb.ca.