Housing in the Greater Golden Horseshoe is at a pivotal moment. After several years defined by rising borrowing costs, limited choice and mounting affordability pressures, the market has entered a period of adjustment. TRREB’s 2026 Market Outlook & Year in Review report takes a closer look at what this shift means for buyers, sellers, landlords and renters, and the long-term health of our region.

This year’s theme, The Pressure Point: Housing Supply, Migration, and the Missing Middle, reflects the realities shaping housing outcomes today.

More choice, less urgency

Improved affordability across ownership and rental markets defined much of 2025. Higher active listings helped restore balance in several market segments, particularly condominium apartments, giving buyers and renters greater leverage. Many households now expect to pay less for a home in 2026 than they would have a year earlier, reflecting softer prices and improved negotiating conditions.

However, increased choice has not translated into a surge in activity. Buying intentions declined year over year, reinforcing an important reality: Affordability alone does not drive housing decisions. Confidence matters. Many households remain cautious as they weigh job security, economic uncertainty and the long-term commitment that comes with homeownership.

As a result, GTA home sales are expected to range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions in 2026, with activity likely remaining subdued in the first half of the year before improving if confidence strengthens.

The homes we’re missing

While short-term market conditions continue to adjust, the region’s long-term housing challenge remains unchanged. Population growth continues to support demand across the GTA and Simcoe, and while many newcomers initially rent, ownership demand ultimately follows.

This is where missing-middle housing becomes essential. Townhomes, duplexes, multiplexes and other lowrise multi-unit options offer attainable choices for families, newcomers and residents looking to right-size, while fitting more naturally into existing neighbourhoods. Purpose-built rental housing also remains a critical part of a healthy housing system, particularly as many households face a significant gap between what they can afford and the homes they would ideally like to purchase.

Why people are rethinking where they live

Housing affordability does not exist in isolation. It intersects with broader livability concerns, including congestion, infrastructure strain and quality of life. These combined pressures are influencing where people choose to live and work, particularly among younger households and families.

When housing costs rise faster than incomes and daily commutes become less manageable, people look elsewhere. Addressing these challenges requires more than market adjustment alone. Efficient planning systems, predictable housing taxes, sustained investment in transportation and a commitment to building a full range of housing options all play a role in keeping the region competitive and liveable.

From adjustment to opportunity

Housing markets do not turn overnight. The progress reflected over the past year is gradual, but meaningful. Improved affordability, increased choice and more balanced conditions have helped lay the groundwork for recovery.

Whether that recovery gains momentum will depend on confidence, economic stability and coordinated policy decisions that support housing supply over the long term. By focusing on evidence-based approaches and long-term outcomes, we can support a housing system that meets today’s needs while preparing the GTA for the growth ahead.

To explore the full report, visit market-outlook.trreb.ca.