The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market continues to experience the effects of higher borrowing costs, increasing inflation and economic uncertainty. All of these factors have contributed to slower economic growth and impacted home sales. In spite of a surge in listings, the average selling price has increased.

“GTA home selling prices remain above the trough experienced in the beginning of 2023,” says TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. “However, we did experience more balance in the market place in the summer and early fall, with listings increasing relative to sales. This suggests that some buyers may benefit from more negotiating power, at least in the short term. This could help offset the impact of high borrowing costs.”

September Snapshot:

TRREB’s CEO, John DiMichele, says “TRREB’s annual consumer polling has shown that half of intending homebuyers in Toronto will be first-time buyers in any given year. The average price of a condo apartment in Toronto is more than $700,000. Yet, the first-time buyer exemption threshold for the City’s upfront land transfer tax has remained at $400,000 for a decade-and-a-half. With this in mind, TRREB applauds Toronto City Council for asking City staff to provide a report on a more appropriate exemption level moving forward.”

He further stresses that “many housing and taxation policies are currently set in opposition and we need all levels of government to align policies and work together to solve this housing crisis.”

Uptick in demand

The short- and medium-term outlooks for the GTA housing market are remarkably different. In the short- term, the consensus view is that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024, after which they will start to trend lower. This suggests that we should start to see a marked uptick in demand for ownership housing in the second half of next year, as lower rates and record population growth spur an increase in buyers.

To stay up-to-date on all things real estate in the GTA, tune into TRREB’s Ready to Real Estate podcast. You can also check out our monthly Market Watch. We break down prices, sales and new listings each month with an easy to glance report. Visit trreb.ca to explore the latest look into the housing market. Plus, connect with a TRREB member realtor and search listings in real-time on any device.